Horrible. Terrible. No Good, Very Bad... Outliers!

Far and away, the most exciting day of the Fantasy Baseball season is draft day. It's not just the built up excitement of scouring over pre-season rankings by every site from ESPN, to Yahoo, to Rotoworld. Nope. It's not just that draft day is usually the only day of the season where there's an eighty three percent chance (yes, it's been calculated) that all managers will actually log on and participate. And, of course, it's not just that draft day gives the Fantasy Baseball geeks of the world an opportunity to leave their parents' basement and enter a non-web-based social environment.

Ok. Alright, so maybe those are exactly the reasons we love draft day so much. So, what about after the last pick of the last round is made? What's the next step? Aside from our roommate's best friend from Utah we had to beg to join in order to meet the minimum required number of teams, the rest of us flock back to out computers to sit and stare at our projected lineups for hours upon hours.

It's usually after two or three hours of speculating necessary changes when the waiver wire becomes a revolving door of impulse fantasy swapping. These moves may or may not actually help down the road, but we feel like they're necessary anyway. It's not really until a month or two into the season that useful additions are executed. These heroes of May typically flame out and become fallen and forgotten just in time for us to decide the production is real and they absolutely must be on our roster.

Every now and then one of these fantasy darlings sticks. This is usually due to one of two reasons; either the player is truly experiencing a breakout year and will be rewarded heavily with both a fatty new contract and a mass-executed and ill-advised jump in next year's pre-season rankings. Or, they simply stick because the tool that picked them in week three hasn't logged on since and, along with 2009's surplus supply of Snuggies and Shamwows, that player will find himself in the depths of the burn pile.

Which, in turn, leads me to my list of the top two suspects who each match one (or both) of these two descriptions:

1. Jose Bautista- This year's shocking AL MVP candidate is currently on pace to smash a whopping 50 home runs. His six foot tall, sub two hundred pound frame is cranking our bone-crushing power in clutch situations of all types. The most shocking element? During his seven year career, his previous high is identical to his current total (16). Is it really necessary to continue?

2. Alex Gonzalez- Walks? We don't need no stinking walks. That's right, Alex is pushing to become his generations' Saltan of Swat. His secret to success? Swing at absolutely everything in or around home plate--everything. Even Mark Reynolds knows he's got to take a walk at least every now and then.

On the other hand, some players undeservedly wind up on the waiver wire. Whether it's due to constant injury, some sort of mental/vision issues, or the fact that they've been mistakingly using their sister-in-law's softball bat and swapped jock straps with their nephew. These things happen. And, eventually they get worked out.

Here's my double entente of players you need to swipe of of waivers if possible:

1. Gordon Beckham- Anyone who tells you they knew he was ready when the Sox seemingly rushed him up last year is a dirty liar. Ok, I guess it's possible that Chi-town scouts may have had some sort of hankering. Regardless, the kid showcased his five-tool play in a drool-eliciting performance in 2009. Looking at his 2010 numbers, it's hard to believe he was hyped as the next big time breakout candidate on the infield just a couple months ago. Despite his bush league stat line, he will recover, he will provide at least good depth at second and third (which actually increases his value big time), and he should end up with a home run total closer to 20 than 10. Patience, my friend.

2. Aramis Ramirez- Keep a close eye on his situation. If he continues to get days off for "rest", it's certainly possible he's heading back to the DL. It's also possible that at 31 and closing in fast on a decade in the Majors, he really does need a little extra rest. Either way, he's a strong candidate to hit his perennial top ten hot corner numbers. Nobody enjoys watching a guy carry a sub .200 average into June, but doesn't everyone deserve a second chance?

So, when you're finished reading this and rushing to your fantasy team page, remember a few things. First, remember that change isn't always a good thing. Making roster swaps just for the sake of change is ever-tempting (and a chance I wouldn't take), but what happens if that change involves you dropping Aramis for Bautista (metaphorically, of course.)?

Second, always check career numbers. It's highly possible for a player at 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, or even 26 to experience a true breakout year. Any older and a serious career evaluation is necessary. Was this 28 year old blocked (aka Casey Mcgehee) or maybe experiencing recurring injuries during what should have been those breakout years (hello Aaron Hill)? Normally, these guys are the exception and not the rule.

Lastly, if you do decide to ride one of these outliers who appear in most top thirty points lists, only one thing is guaranteed... You're going to have a Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Fantasy Baseball Season.