Down on the Farm

Since being hired as General Manager, Dayton Moore's reassurance to fans has rested on the laurels of "the Process". Moore was given the reigns of the organization (this is only in theory of course because he has almost no control over the checkbook) weeks before the 2006 first year player draft. So what? Well, this means he's been given the opportunity of using 5 rule 4 drafts (first year players), 5 rule 5 drafts (unprotected players from other MLB teams), 4 off seasons to sign international talent, 4 off seasons to sign free agent players, and he's approaching his 5th trade deadline opportunity--all shots at improving the team.

These five methods of bringing in new players are designed to allow teams of both winning and losing natures to garner an "equal" chance to rebuild, reload and reassess their rosters. Dayton has dipped his interest into all five categories in his duration as General Manager with some success and some failure.

Some of his failures include sending away bullpen arms like J.P Howell, Jeremy Affeldt, Leo Nunez, and Ramon Ramirez. Of the four, Affeldt is the easiest to swallow as he's been up and down since leaving Kansas City. On the other hand, Howell and Ramirez have experienced tremendous success for contending teams. Oh, and how about that Nunez kid? (he's only one of the more dominating closers in the league for the Marlins)

Remember when Jorge de la Rosa possessed plus stuff, but just couldn't find his control? He's found it in Colorado. We received "future considerations" in return for a guy who would be the Royals' third or fourth starter today. However, if you really do remember this guy in a Royals uniform; you probably remember the same sort of frustration we experience with guys like Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar. Davies and Jorge are comparable, but the difference between Jorge and Hochevar is that Luke has truly electric "stuff". He's a pitcher who will contribute as a solid number two behind Greinke once he masters his control. Would anyone be devastated if we sent Davies packing for cash in return, then followed that move by bringing up a kid like Montgomery, Crow, or Lamb? Didn't think so.

So, what about a few of the successful trades Dayton has pulled the trigger on? In 2006, the Royals sent Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for farmhands Tyler Lumsden and Daniel Cortes; Both of which have since been moved to other organizations. Lumsden packed his bags and headed to Texas in exchange for Jordan Parraz (currently in Omaha and hitting well as an outfielder). And, Cortez? He was part of the deal which brought Yuniesky Betancourt to Kansas City. Not a fan of our new "toolsy" short stop? We'd be willing to bet you'd much rather see Yuni out there than, say, TPJ (rec specs included).

Many fans were outraged with Dayton after he traded away Cortez, who was considered one of the Royals' top pitching prospects. However, certain personal problems initiated the notion of getting rid of him, and since the trade, he hasn't been nearly as dominant. In a similar transaction, Moore sent Dan Guitierrez (a top 10 prospect) to the Rangers in return for catcher Manny Pina and outfielder Tim Smith. While Guitierrez served a 50 game drug suspension, Smith recently got the AA All-Star vote and Pina (also AA) looks to be on the fast track to the Majors.

Finally, we'll discuss his two most successful trades: Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister and Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo. Any discussion needed? Both players the Royals received have become major contributors in the past couple years. Both players the Royals sent away have failed to make any impact for their respective teams.

As far as trades go, a fair grade for the Royals organization would be a C+. In the world of trading, you win some and you lose some. It seems for each bad trade made, Dayton has made up for it with a good one.

Now, let's talk about the Rule 5 draft. Every year, teams have the opportunity to pluck away unprotected players from other teams. Guess who currently has the best Rule 5 pick in history under contract? That's right--the Mexicutioner himself was a selection of Dayton Moore out of the Padres organization. Soria was the epitome of a high risk, high reward gamble as he came to KC with an injury history. Since then, he's been selected as an All-Star and become the career saves leader amongst Mexican born players. At only 26, Soria looks to be a staple of the franchise for a long time to come (if he isn't used as trade bait first).

Free agency is a discussion which basically begins and ends with two players: Jose Guillen and Gil Meche. These two (extremely) high priced players have offered mixed results. At the end of each of their contracts, the Royals will have spent over 90 million dollars combined on the couple. This number is most likely the reason David Glass's wallet has remained tight over the past two years--virtually puting a hold on all major free agency acquisitions.

In the meantime, Dayton has decided to aggressively pursue a different tact by concentrating the budget on the Rule 4 draft and international signings. We examined the most recent draft in last week's farm report, so today we'll look at the Royals' draft strategy since 2006 as well as international signings.

The Royals have invested heavily in the international market the past two years. The three most notable signings have been 21 year old left-handed starting pitcher Noel Arguelles, 17 year old third base prospect Cheslor Cuthbert, and 18 year old catching prospect Jin-Ho Shin.

Arguelles is currently on the shelf after pitching for 18 months straight internationally and for scouts, but when he returns, he should adjust quickly to low A and projects as a number two starter. Cuthbert is the definition of a "project" player. He possesses plenty of raw power and decent range at third base, but has a long way to go. Shin (Korean) was regarded as the top catching prospect on the international market. All three players were considered great signings as they were coveted by any team with enough money to dish out. We can view these guys as a supplement to the draft. They are players who, if able to enter the draft, scouts dubbed as having the potential to go anywhere from round one to round five.

Every year, over a thousand amateur players are available in the draft. These players consist of high school seniors, all junior college players, college juniors and seniors, and any independent league baseball players. The MLB draft differentiates itself from drafts in basketball and football by allowing players to enter, be drafted and then decide not to sign their contract (allowing them to either go on to college, return to college, or play independent ball).

These stipulations often cause players to slide due to sign-ability concerns; meaning they possess a certain price tag which needs to be met in order for that player not to honor their college commitment. In essence, a high school player worthy of being drafted in the top 10 could easily slide to the second or third round. Teams with the necessary budget may then select these players and elect to pay them well over slot to secure their signature.

Additionally, often times a player may be drafted two or three times; once out of high school, once after their junior year, and again after their senior year. What's the advantage of paying an amount over the recommended slot price?

Let's say player X is a high school pitcher from Texas. He's a 6'5", 180 pound power righty with a firm commitment to be a Longhorn. Weeks before the draft, his agent notifies all MLB teams that his signing price will be a non-negotiable three million dollars. Still, even if a team is willing to pay the three million, a chance remains that the player will choose his commitment to Texas over playing professionally. On talent alone, player X is top 10 caliber. However, because of the risk involved, he slips to the third round.

This exact scenario is one which the Royals have been chasing the past 4 years in the draft. Instead of pursuing big time free agents or resigning current players who might cost a pretty penny, Dayton and his management and scouting team have decided to invest a large bulk of the budget in these types of players.

In 2007, we saw the Royals select Mike Moustakas second overall. He was considered an extremely high risk to sign. In 2008, they followed the same pattern selecting Eric Hosmer with the third overall selection. These weren't the only high risk high school players selected. Others include Dan Duffy, Hilton Richardson, Derrick Robinson, Bryan Paukovits, Michael Montgomery, Tyler Sample, Tim Melville, John Lamb, William Myers, Crawford Simmons, Michael Antonio (2010), Jason Adam (2010), and Johnathon Gray (2010). Interesting to note that all players on this list are top 25 prospects for the Royals, with 5 being in the top 10.

Now that we've explained the "process" in detail, let's summarize; The Royals have had so-so success with Major League transactions, but it's not the Majors which have been their focus. Dayton is a general manager with the eye of a scout and a real talent for building a farm system. So, while certain Major League moves have contributed to the "process" (Soria, Greinke's deal, and solidifying Butler's bat in the lineup), there's no question the Royals are building for the future. When will this "future" come to fruition?

We've seen a demotion and position switch of Alex Gordon from third to left field in order to loosen him up mentally and set his bat on fire. Additionally, this move paves the way for Moustakas to earn the hot corner job as early as next season. Another position switch may be on the horizon with the emergence of Eric Hosmer. Although he may not see the Majors until 2012, his rise to the top may push Butler to the DH spot.

The rest of the "future" outfield is on its way with Robinson filling in at center and Brett Eibner (2010) most likely making the shift from center to right field.

The "future" infield is still missing three of its five parts: Catcher, second base and short stop. Wil Myers has developed into one of the top catching prospects in the game and will fill the catching void in a few years. Until then, Manny Pina will keep his spot warm. Second base should be filled by Johnny Giavotella (Dustin Pedroia Jr.), and with today's official announcement of Christian Colon's signing--we have our short stop of the future.

With all position players accounted for, a look into the starting rotation is up next. Our "Ace" is in place and will sit a top of this talented rotation of youngsters: Luke Hochevar, Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Dan Duffy and Aaron Crow. Obviously, a rotation consists of five and not six pitchers. Beer League fully expects the Royals to trade one or more of these pitchers in an effort to fill other various voids on the field. As Dayton always says, "pitching is the currency of baseball".

While the results on the Major League level have been uninspiring to say the least, the Royals' farm system is full of upside, potential and success. Last week, the Northwest Arkansas Naturals were awarded with the first half league title. This award automatically qualifies them for postseason play--a promising sign as many of our highly touted prospects play on the team.

Remember the year 2012. Keep it in mind. The fate of the Royals organization and its chances at making a series run depend on the continued development of the aforementioned players. And, just like every Friday, here's a list of the farm system's top performers:

AAA

LF Alex Gordon= .333 14(2B) 1(3B) 10(HR) 32(RBI) 6(SB) 38BB-52K

1B Kila Ka'aihue= .313 14(2B) 12(HR) 46(RBI) 65BB-47K

RF David Lough= .274 8(2B) 6(3B) 8(HR) 30(RBI) 6(SB) 10BB-39K

RP Blaine Hardy= 2-1 43(IP) 31(K) 1.27 (ERA) 0.81(WHIP)

AA

3B Mike Moustakas= .350 21(2B) 18(HR) 66(RBI) 22BB-36K

CF Derrick Robinson= .292 11(2B) 6(3B) 24(RBI) 30(SB) 29BB-50K

2B Johnny Giavotella= .283 16(2B) 3(3B) 1(HR) 24(RBI) 9(SB) 34BB-34K

1B Clint Robinson= .301 26(2B) 1(3B) 12(HR) 50(RBI) 33BB-45K

LF Paulo Orlando= .316 10(2B) 5(3B) 3(HR) 26(RBI) 14BB-28K

RP Louis Coleman= 2-1 48(IP) 52(K) 2.23(ERA) 0.93(WHIP)

SP Mike Montgomery= 5-1 53(IP) 58(K) 2.01(ERA) 0.98(WHIP)

SP Edgar Osuna= 6-2 80(IP) 55(K) 2.59(ERA) 1.10(WHIP)

High A

1B Eric Hosmer= .358 24(2B) 6(3B) 4(HR) 43(RBI) 10(SB) 33BB-27K

SP Chris Dwyer= 4-3 73(IP) 77(K) 2.95(ERA) 1.27(WHIP)

SP John Lamb= 5-5 81(IP) 91(K) 1.76(ERA) 1.11(WHIP)

Low A

C William Myers= .287 16(2B) 1(3B) 10(HR) 43(RBI) 9(SB) 45BB-51K

SP Tyler Sample= 2-3 63(IP) 53(K) 4.00(ERA) 1.44(WHIP)

SP Bryan Paukovits= 3-3 62(IP) 65(K) 3.32(ERA) 0.95(WHIP)

Keep your heads up Royals fans. The best has yet to come. Twenty five years of losing and witnessing unattractive baseball is enough to make watching reruns of Bananas in Pajamas exciting. The "process" is working. It's slow. It takes time. In just five years, Dayton Moore and his staff have transformed one of the worst minor league systems in baseball to a consensus top 5 farm. The crops will be ripe for picking in 2012. Patience is a virtue. And, this time it's going to pay off.

Draft Night Eve

With the draft under 24 hours away, it's that time--time to put together Beer League's attempt at guessing who will go where; otherwise known as a "mock draft".

Before we go into the actual picks, let's examine the ground rules used to determine the players chosen. First, only the lottery picks were analyzed. Second, choices were based on both need and overall player value.

Unfortunately, in a lot of cases, teams value high ceiling over actual team needs. This makes it extremely difficult to accurately predict who will go where. This is opposite of the NFL draft where a team with a major hole at a primary position is likely to fill that position with their first selection.

Additionally, draft day trades occur constantly and throughout both rounds. This process alters who goes at what slot as teams will work out a deal prior to picking.

Taking all of this into consideration, the Washington Wizards are officially on the clock:

Wizards= John Wall
-An obvious pick here as Wall is one of the more special talents to come out in a long time. He will run the point from day one, pushing Gilbert Arenas aside to the shooting guard spot (assuming they can't trade him).

76ers= Evan Turner
-The Sixers could absolutely go with a guy like Favors or Cousins here after trading away Samuel Dalembert. However, Spencer Hawes is a developing young center and they do have guys like Elton Brand, Marreese Speights, Jason Smith and Thadeous Young who can all play in the post. Turner fills a need at the wing position as a point-forward. His handle and scoring ability will take pressure off of young Jrue Holiday.

Nets= Derrick Favors
-With Brook Lopez and Yi Jianlian already on the roster, this threesome would make one of the best young post rotations in the NBA. This pick depends a lot on what the Nets believe they'll draw in from free agency. (Remember Beer League's take on a certain super star heading to the Nets? We think he'd enjoy this young, complimenting big man rotation)

Timberwolves= Wesley Johnson
-He's been their guy since day one and we don't see anything changing.

Kings= Demarcus Cousins
-After acquiring Dalembert, Cousins joins Sacramento as a perfect offensive compliment to Dalembert's post defense. Don't forget about Jason Thompson who may have something to say about one of these guys' playing time. Add these three to Tyreke Evans and Casspi, and a nice corp of young players might be looking to get the Kings out of the lottery for 2011.

Warriors= Al-Farouq Aminu
-The ultra athletic small forward may have the highest ceiling in the draft. Can he put it all together and become the superstar Golden State is hoping for?

Pistons= Greg Monroe
-This versatile center fits nicely with the players already on Detroit's roster. They could go defensive here with Aldrich or Udoh, but Monroe seems to have more of a balanced pro game and they'd be stoked if he fell this far.

Clippers= Paul George
-The Clippers have a solid core of veteran players in Kaman, Baron Davis, and Drew Gooden. They also have a young crop of talent in Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, and Blake Griffin. George brings massive offensive upside and versatility to this staff and would look to see plenty of time at the small forward spot.

Jazz= Luke Babbitt
-Babbitt is a tall, slender forward who knows how to score. There may never be enough toys for Derron Williams to play with, but Babbitt is a nice one.

Pacers= Gordon Heyward
-This pick may be a slight stretch, but he's a local product and fits well with Indiana's roster. Mike Dunleavy anybody?

Hornets= Xavier Henry
-The Hornets are Chris Paul's team and he needs weapons to dish to. Peja is nice. He's got talent in the post with Emeka and David West. Now, it's time to get a sweet shooting lefty.

Grizzlies= Avery Bradley
-Assuming Rudy Gay sticks around, the Grizzlies have no gaping holes. Bradley is the best high upside athlete left on the board. We're sure he can find something positive to do in Memphis.

Raptors= Cole Aldrich
-Chris Bosh is likely getting out of town via free agency. Drafting Cole to play center allows Bargnani to shift to his more natural forward position and gives the Raptors a defensive anchor in the post.

Do we really expect to score a 100% on the "mock"? No. But, wouldn't it be cool if we did?