Big XII - Spotlight on the Future

Following the latest breaking news concerning the Big XII is like sitting outside during a Kansas thunderstorm-- it's an unexpected mix of rain, hail, raging winds, cloud-to-dirt lightning, and booming thunder. Only in this case, it's more a blender of swirling rumors, sketchy reports, and unfounded "tweets" all followed up by random and dicey pieces of possible scenery-reversing news bits.

Taking all of this into consideration, Beer League has put together a three part break down of potential realignment situations. While reading, keep in mind that at any moment (even while this is being written) the landscape of possibilities could receive a ground-shaking blow.

This three part saga is organized in order of most desirable to least appealing.

Scenario One: The Big XII becomes the Big Ten
-With Nebraska and Colorado already throwing in the towel in hopes of bigger and brighter...dollar signs; KU, MU, KSU, ISU, OSU, OU, BU, UT, A & M, and TECH remain. This possibility remains in tact after a last minute plea by Dan Beebe to Texas and company beginning last night. The sticking point with the new deal is the increase in revenue from television contracts. Also, schools will be able to negotiate their own television deals--something Texas covets to a great degree. Additionally, various reports have indicated A & M's strong desire to move into the Southeastern Conference and out from the shadow of its long time "big brother", Texas. A departure of A & M would undoubtedly bring the Big XII to an explosive end, resulting in a final bow of Texas on its way to the Pac-10. Resulting in...

Scenario Two: Splitting the Big XII between the Pac-10 and Mountain West
-Since the Big XII's inception, it's been a little-kept secret that Texas is the ringleader, the MVP, and (quite honestly) the bully of the conference. What the Longhorns want, the Longhorns get. Without A & M in the picture, Texas understands the lack of appeal offered by the remaining Big XII and would opt for a partnership towards the west. The Pac-10 would welcome Texas in a heartbeat as a major boost to its conference in all aspects. Riding the Longhorns' coattails out of town would be a follow-the-leader lineup of Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. That makes 15 schools for the Pac-10 (remember Colorado has already accepted the Pac-10's invite). It's believed that a contingent offer was placed on the table to KU assuming a Texas A & M spurn. With KU, the Pac-10 grows to their desired "Super Conference" number of 16. But, it's just not that easy. Why? Other reports have indicated a Pac-10 desire of the Salt Lake City television market, placing Utah as the firm 16th member. Leading into...

Scenario Three: The Mountain West garners an increase in basketball RPI
-In this scenario, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State join the Pac-10 with Utah. This leaves slim pickings for other BCS conferences to choose from, allowing the Mountain West Conference to step in and "save the day" by offering a 3-way rivalry-saving invite of KU, KSU, and MU. The additions of these three schools automatically qualifies the Mountain West to become a BCS conference--something they've been fighting towards for some time. The conference has already added Boise State in an effort to make itself more appealing. Unfortunately, despite gaining BCS standing, it may prove more difficult to convince high profile recruits in football and basketball to join a conference in which they'd play in empty (basketball) road venues like Texas Christian and Colorado State.

While rumors have been floating about a possible merger with the Big East and invites being extended to KU, KSU and MU, this doesn't make sense geographically, economically or academically (remember the "student" comes before the "athlete" in "student-athlete"). As tempting as it sounds to create a "super" basketball conference, the pieces just don't seem to add up.

As predicted in paragraph two, news just broke out of Dallas Morning News that Texas has declined an invite to the Pac-10. The source in the story appears to be Pac-10 commissioner, Larry Scott.

Based on this report, Scenario One is actually the most likely now with Texas staying put. Also, this indicates that Texas A & M will concrete itself as the tenth member of the Big XII...Or whatever the new name might be.

Although this is the latest news, keep in mind that nothing has been certain during the past week. And, nothing will be certain until the dotted line is signed.